đź“– The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future by Bruce Bueno De Mesquita (2009). Reading this book in 2025 is like finding an ancient prophecy that everyone has forgotten. Not perfect, but so many good calls. It also contains this gem:
My idea is that the Israeli and Palestinian governments will distribute a portion of their tax revenue generated from tourism (and only from tourism) to each other. Before going into the details—where the devil resides—let’s first see why tourist revenue and not any other. Why not, for example, promote peace by setting up joint Israeli-Palestinian ventures, or allowing freer movement between regions, or some other scheme? As we will see, shared tourist revenue provides a nearly unique opportunity.
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The tourist tax revenue arrangement need not last forever. It must include an irrevocable commitment for it to persist for a long time (say twenty years), and it is important that this tax revenue sharing be tied to a fixed formula based on the current populations and not on future changes in those populations. Opening the formula to renegotiation could create perverse incentives. It is also essential that the definition of tax revenue originating from spending by tourists be based on predetermined rules for estimating this source of income. Independent accounting firms might be used to provide a standard way to define and identify tourist revenue and the taxes derived from it. This tax revenue would then be allocated to each side over the agreed duration of the program based on a onetime fixed population-based formula with no questions asked.
Using Game Theory to play through the whole scenario was a fascinating take.